Thursday 31th May 2007
Epidemiological updates
Scientific advances
Meetings and workshops
- Second International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans, 31st May – 1st June Paris, France.
- European Scientific Working group on Influenza - Practical course on laboratory methods. Erasmus Medical Centre, 4- 8th June 2007, Rotterdam, Netherlands.
- Options for the Control of Influenza Conference, 17-23rd June 2007, Toronto, Canada.
- 4th European Pandemic Preparedness Workshop, 25-27th Sept 2007, Luxemburg.
- Perspectives in Interpandemic Influenza, 12-14th October 2007, Madrid, Spain.
AVIAN INFLUENZA – HUMAN HEALTH – CHINA
30 May 2007
The WHO has announced the report from the Ministry of Health in China of a new case of human infection with the H5N1 avian influenza virus. The case was confirmed by the national laboratory on 23 May. The 19-year old male soldier, serving in Fujian province, developed fever and pneumonia-like symptoms on 9 May and was hospitalized on 14 May. Like a number of recent cases in China there is no initial indication to suggest he had contact with sick birds prior to becoming unwell.
Of the 25 cases confirmed to date in China, 15 are known to have died.
ECDC Travel Advice
China: summary situation
WHO latest avian influenza update
Cumulative number of confirmed human cases of avian influenza A/(H5N1) reported to WHO
AVIAN INFLUENZA – ANIMAL HEALTH – UK
Poultry outbreaks of LPAI (H7N2) in Wales, associated with human infection
Eurosurveillance weekly reports on poultry outbreaks of a low pathogenic strain of avian influenza (H7N2) detected in Wales (UK) and associated with some human infections.
Avian influenza A/(H7N2) outbreak in the United Kingdom (Eurosurveillance editorial team)
Low pathogenicity Avian Influenzas and human health (ECDC influenza team)
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Scientific advances
SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES – SEASONAL INFLUENZA – MORTALITY
Predicting pneumonia and influenza mortality from morbidity data
Denoeud L, et al
PLoS ONE. 2007 May 23;2:e464
Description (30/05/2007): The study investigates the feasibility of obtaining reliable real-time estimates of mortality in ≥65 years old, due to pneumonia and influenza (P&I), using routine sources of data (i.e. weekly ILI incidence from the sentinel network of practitioners, and number of deaths due to pneumonia and influenza from the death certificates).
After calculating a threshold for baseline ILI incidence, the investigators defined as epidemic, the periods when for 2 consecutive weeks the observed ILI incidence exceeded the predicted, in a statistically significant way. They applied the same methodology to mortality due to P&I, but excluding deaths during ILI epidemic periods to obtain the baseline mortality in ≥65 years old. The model was fitted taking into account the dominant influenza type and subtypes circulating in France and their different impact on ILI incidence and mortality. Mortality was then classified into “high”, “moderate”, and “low”. The model was fitted on 14 influenza seasons and was validated on six subsequent influenza seasons.
The median excess ILI morbidity in 20 epidemic periods (from 1984 to 2004) was 222/100’000 inhabitants per week. The case fatality ratio (CFR) ranged from 0.53% in 2002/2003, to 3.10% during an epidemic in 1990/1991. During the validation phase the model correctly predicted the burden of mortality in 5 out of 6 seasons.
ECDC Comment (30/05/2007): The yearly mortality due to seasonal influenza is recognised to be higher than usually reported due to the difficulties in measuring its specific burden. In addition data on influenza mortality usually become available when the epidemics are already over and therefore they are of limited public health use. This study proposes and uses a simple method to obtain reliable estimates of influenza mortality in a timely way during the seasonal epidemics.
Although many methodological limitations should be taken into account when interpreting the findings of the study as the authors acknowledge in the discussion, the advantages of predicting what approximate level of mortality we can expect according to the incidence of ILI and the virus type or subtype, are remarkable. Such information can have different public health applications, for example it could help planning hospital needs, the amount of antivirals to order, and can be used to raise awareness on the severity of seasonal influenza thus promoting the yearly vaccination of target groups. Such approach is probably less appropriate to predict mortality during an influenza pandemic, as the case fatality rate of the pandemic virus can be very different from that of the seasonal virus.
Comment to influenza@ecdc.europa.eu.
Meetings and workshops
May 31st – June 1st Paris, France - 2nd International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans
This international conference, that will be held in the Institut Pasteur in Paris, has a broad thematic area from political and economic issues to prevention, diagnosis and treatment of avian influenza. The main focus will be on new therapeutic targets for treatment and prevention (vaccines) in humans and animals, and the strategies to avoid a human pandemic by treating and preventing the epizootic.
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Meetings and workshops
May 31st – June 1st Paris, France - 2nd International Conference on Avian Influenza in Humans
This international conference, that will be held in the Institut Pasteur in Paris, has a broad thematic area from political and economic issues to prevention, diagnosis and treatment of avian influenza. The main focus will be on new therapeutic targets for treatment and prevention (vaccines) in humans and animals, and the strategies to avoid a human pandemic by treating and preventing the epizootic.
Conference Website http://www.isanh.com/avian-influenza/
For more information, please contact Dr Morgan Tréguier influenza2007@orange.fr
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European Scientific Working group on Influenza - Practical Influenza Course. Erasmus Medical Centre, June 4th to 8th 2007 Rotterdam, Netherlands.
The ESWI has organised a course on basic laboratory techniques for influenza diagnosis. The course will cover issues related to Collection and transport of specimens, virus isolation, Diagnostics, Serology and other molecular techniques such as RT PCR, Dot –blot hybridization, Sequencing, Sequence analysis/phylogenetic analysis, Taq-man. It is targeted to young scientists and the number of attendees is limited. Deadline for registration 4 May 2007.
For more information on registration E-mail: info@linkinc.be
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Options for the Control of Influenza Conference – June 17-23rd Toronto Canada
This is the 6th of a one every 4 years scientific conference which aims to provide comprehensive, state-of-the-art scientific information for all disciplines involved in influenza prevention, control, and treatment, including seasonal and pandemic planning. It covers an unusually wide range of topics and is a prime place for those from the range of disciplines from basic science to policy, from veterinary and human considerations.
Conference Website: http://www.optionsviconference.com/
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4th European Pandemic Preparedness Workshop, Luxemburg Sept 25th-27th 2007.
The fourth Europe-wide workshop is being organised by the European Commission, ECDC and WHO European Region with for this workshop the Commission taking the lead. It will be open to a limited number of senior officials from countries of the WHO Europe region including the EU Member States. These will be those with expertise in influenza pandemic preparedness that are either invited by the organisers or identified by the national authorities.
The report on the Third Joint Meeting in Uppsala in May is available at Third joint EC/ECDC/WHO Workshop on Pandemic Influenza Preparedness
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Perspectives in Interpandemic Influenza, Madrid, 12-14 October 2007.
The inaugural Congress on Perspectives in Interpandemic Influenza will take place 12-14 October 2007 in Madrid, Spain. This Congress aim’s to provide an update on the latest treatment and management options available for seasonal influenza. The agenda is focused on therapeutic approaches to patient care, and is targeted at health care professionals in the primary care sector.
Conference website: Perspectives in Interpandemic Influenza
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