ECDC has released an updated risk assessment of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009. The document points out that the virus will continue to transmit in a heterogeneous manner but at a low level over the summer in European countries and that it is likely that a proper first wave of the pandemic will take place in the autumn and winter.

Experience from the temperate countries in the southern hemisphere, that could be relevant also for Europe, indicates that even if the overall interruption of essential services in (well-prepared) countries has been manageable, stress on some health care services– especially hospitals – has been substantial.

See current Pandemic Risk Assessment (21/08/2009)