To evaluate and direct HIV prevention efforts, it is crucial to understand the pattern of new infections, or HIV incidence, among groups most at risk of infection. A substantial amount of HIV-positive people are still undiagnosed, either because they were recently infected or because they have never tested for HIV. It is also important to estimate the proportion of the total population of persons living with HIV, including those that are not yet diagnosed, in order to understand the burden of HIV and the need for antiretroviral treatment and other HIV-related care.
More on modelling
Understanding national epidemics: new ECDC modelling tool helps to estimate HIV incidence
How many people are getting infected with HIV, how many are being missed or not being reported and how many should be on treatment ECDC’s HIV modelling tool helps to understand local HIV epidemics by providing better estimates based on surveillance data