Epidemiological update: outbreak of Ebola virus disease in West Africa, 13 November 2014

Epidemiological update

​There is an increase of 830 cases and 200 deaths since 4 November. Mali reported three confirmed and two probable cases, including four deaths. In Sierra Leone, the weekly incidence continues to rise, while in Liberia it appears to be declining. In all three countries, EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread, particularly in the capital cities.

​Since December 2013 and as of 9 November 2014, WHO has reported 14 098 confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in six affected countries (Guinea, Liberia, Mali, Sierra Leone, Spain and the United States of America) and two previously affected countries (Nigeria and Senegal). There have been 5 160 reported deaths. This is an increase of 830 cases and 200 deaths since 4 November.

Distribution of cases Countries with widespread and intense transmission:

  • Guinea: 1 878 cases and 1 142 deaths as of 9 November 2014;
  • Liberia: 6 822 cases and 2 836 deaths as of 8 November 2014;
  • Sierra Leone: 5 368 cases and 1 169 deaths as of 9 November 2014.

Countries with an initial case or cases, or with localised transmission:

  • Mali reported three confirmed and two probable cases, including four deaths;
  • United States: four confirmed cases, including one death;
  • Spain: one case, no deaths;
  • Nigeria: 20 cases and eight deaths. Nigeria was declared Ebola free on 19 October 2014;
  • Senegal: One confirmed imported case. Senegal was declared Ebola free on 17 October 2014.

 

Distribution of cases of EVD by week of reporting in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal and Mali, weeks 48/2013 to 46/2014, as of 12 November 2014

 

 

* In week 45/2014, WHO carried-out retrospective correction in the data resulting in reporting 299 fewer cases resulting in a negative value for new cases in week 45 which is not plotted (See World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap situation report. 5 November 2014 [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; 2014).** According to WHO the marked increase in the cumulative total number of cases in week 43 is due to a more comprehensive assessment of patient databases leading to 3 792 additional reported cases. However, these cases have occurred throughout the epidemic period (See: World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap situation report. 29 October 2014 [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; 2014).The solid green line represents the trend based on a five week moving average plotted on the fifth week of the moving average window. The figure includes cases in Nigeria (20), Senegal (1) and Mali (4) (See: World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap situation report. 12 November 2014 [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; 2014).

 

Situation in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia and MaliAccording to WHO, the weekly incidence appears to be stable at the country level in Guinea. In Sierra Leone, the weekly incidence continues to rise, while in Liberia it appears to be declining. In all three countries, EVD transmission remains persistent and widespread, particularly in the capital cities. All administrative districts in Liberia and Sierra Leone have reported at least one confirmed or probable case of EVD since the start of the epidemic. Cases and deaths continue to be under-reported.

In Mali, after the report of a first case in Kayes imported from Guinea on 23 October, WHO reported four additional cases in Bamako that are not linked to the first case. Two are probable cases from Guinea, one was admitted in a clinic in Bamako on 25 October and died on 27 October, the second was a visitor of this patient who also died (the date of his death is not available so far). The two other cases are confirmed cases in health care workers who cared for the patient in the clinic. One died on 11 November.

 

Distribution of cases of EVD by week of reporting, Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, as of week 46/2014

* The marked increase in the number of cases reported in Sierra Leone (week 44) and Liberia (week 43) results from a more comprehensive assessment of patient databases. The additional 3 792 cases have occurred throughout the epidemic period. Source: Data are based on official information reported by ministries of health up to the end of 2 November for Guinea and Sierra Leone and 31 October for Liberia (See: World Health Organization. Ebola response roadmap situation report. 5 November 2014 [Internet]. Geneva: WHO; 2014).** In week 45/2014, WHO reported 476 fewer cases than the week before in Sierra Leone due to retrospective corrections.§ In week 44/2014, WHO reported zero cases for Liberia.

 

Distribution of cases of EVD by week of reporting in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia (as of week 45/2014)

 

  • EVD epicurve data Cumulative number of cases and deaths for the five West African countries with reported EVD cases (Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal). Source: WHO
  • EVD map data Cumulative number of cases and deaths at subnational level of the five West African countries with reported EVD cases (Liberia, Guinea, Sierra Leone, Nigeria, Senegal). Source: National situation reportFor those weeks without reported data, the most recent figures were used as best estimate of the number of case).

 

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