Risk to EU/EEA from variant mpox virus ‘very low’
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) is working closely with Africa CDC, and local and international partners to monitor and respond to a worsening mpox outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) where a new variant of the mpox virus has emerged.
While the risk to the EU/EEA remains very low, more than 11 000 suspected cases of mpox including around 450 deaths have been reported in DRC since the beginning of 2024. Adding to concerns about the outbreak is the emergence of a new variant of the clade I mpox virus which is thought to cause more severe disease and higher mortality than the clade II variant that has circulated globally since 2022.
“I would like to stress that the risk to the EU/EEA population from the new mpox variant identified in DRC remains very low. ECDC is engaging with our partners in Africa in their efforts to contain this outbreak for the benefit of all those affected, prevent this new variant from spreading any further and reinforce future preparedness and response capabilities,” says Pamela Rendi-Wagner, Director of ECDC.
Despite concerns about the new clade I variant, current vaccines and treatments are expected to remain effective. There is no evidence that the clade I variant is circulating outside central Africa.
Experts from across ECDC have been working closely with their partners at Africa CDC to support the response to the outbreak. Through the ‘ECDC and Africa CDC partnership project’, ECDC experts are contributing to a rapid literature review to help identify gaps in the knowledge of the clade I mpox variant and guide future research. They are also supporting an in-action review of the mpox outbreak response in DRC to inform preparedness and response activities.
In addition, ECDC is preparing for an EU Health Task Force (EUHTF) deployment to DRC, enabled by the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), as part of wider, proactive efforts to support global health and strengthen Europe's defences against infectious disease.
The EUHTF deployment will see an ECDC epidemiologist join colleagues from Africa CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) on the ground in DRC to contribute to the DRC Ministry of Public Health-led outbreak response. EU Health Task Force efforts in DRC will focus on surveillance, field investigation and research projects.
Since 2022, 22 592 cases of mpox have been detected in the EU/EEA in an unrelated outbreak of the less severe clade II variant. Cases have declined steadily since their peak in July 2022. Nine EU/EEA countries reported a total of 98 cases in the four weeks up to July 5, 2024 – the most recent data available.
In the EU/EEA, the risk of infection from mpox clade II remains low for the general population and moderate among higher risk groups such as people who have multiple sexual partners and some men who have sex with men.
ECDC continues to support EU/EEA Member States in responding to the ongoing mpox clade II outbreak, issuing public health guidance, risk communication and community engagement resources and regular joint surveillance bulletins with the WHO Regional Office for Europe. ECDC assesses the overall risk from the ongoing clade II mpox outbreak in Europe as moderate for men who have sex with men and low for the broader population.
