Impact of rotavirus vaccination on epidemiological dynamics in England and WalesArchived
The paper shows, through mathematical modelling, the impact of mass rotavirus vaccination in England and Wales.
Atkins KE, Shim E, Pitzer VE, Galvani AP. Vaccine. 2011 Nov 28. [Epub ahead of print]
In pessimistic scenarios (vaccine immunity lasting for the same duration as a natural infection) vaccination can both reduce the annual incidence of severe RVGE by over 70% and delay the epidemic by two and a half months; in cases where complete vaccine immunity lasts for at least three years, the model predicts disease elimination for any RVGE in children under five years of age.
The issue of cost-effectiveness, however, is not developed in the article, and current cost-effectiveness evaluations in literature do not support the introduction of rotavirus vaccination in England and Wales (see: Jit M et al. The cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination: comparative analyses for five European countries and transferability in Europe. Vaccine 774 2009;27(44):6121–8).